GTA condo market - Page 561 - RedFlagDeals.com Forums (2024)

NuclearBlast wrote: ↑So basically any resale of any "stuff" that made some profit is a Ponzi scheme? Because nothing new was created? I sell a vintage car for 3x the original price and it's a Ponzi scheme because markets didn't move 3x corn and 3x p*rn the same day?

Ponzi is the thr new “it” word. Get hip.

seadog83 wrote: ↑The point is, is that it's all financial games. The total "worth" of everything may have increased, but chasing the same amount of goods means collectively as a society we're no richer.

The people who bought a million dollar SFH did so on the promise that they would generate a million dollars worth of real stuff, along side 60k worth of stuff just to service the promise. Now they're finding it impossible to do so. They can only sell to someone if they accept the same worthless promise they made.

Like any ponzi scheme or lottery, it's possible for individuals to get rich, as they enter and successfully leave the game, but it shrinks the pie as a whole. We should be working on growing the pie.

This it's all printed money right wing radio talking point isn't true. As he said Real Estate has outperformed. All assets are up but the huge immigration surge has made more people chasing a slower growing resource. Also falling interest rates over the past 30 years are an underappreciated factor that is not repeatable. Unlike him I am not optimistic that immigration will come to the rescue. Unlike the bears I do think it is possible and I now feel under invested in real estate with only a PR and lots of stocks and cash. So buying a condo isn't an endorsem*nt of the future but I do see possible upside.

seadog83 wrote: ↑The point is, is that it's all financial games. The total "worth" of everything may have increased, but chasing the same amount of goods means collectively as a society we're no richer.

The people who bought a million dollar SFH did so on the promise that they would generate a million dollars worth of real stuff, along side 60k worth of stuff just to service the promise. Now they're finding it impossible to do so. They can only sell to someone if they accept the same worthless promise they made.

Like any ponzi scheme or lottery, it's possible for individuals to get rich, as they enter and successfully leave the game, but it shrinks the pie as a whole. We should be working on growing the pie.

You see the truth, I agree that it is a ponzi scheme - that's the game of fiat monetary system. We get paid in fiat, so what are we supposed to do? The only way to get ahead is to participate in it and watch someone else labour even more to make our retirement comfortable.

User981123 wrote: ↑It’d be ok if the immigrants were importing had skills and high paying jobs. They’d help grow the economy and push wages up. We got instead a bunch of international students with no discernible skills from diploma mills, whose main goal in life is to work at Tim Hortons.

That's not their main goal...its the only jobs they can get under the table.....

yydd4567 wrote: ↑That's not their main goal...its the only jobs they can get under the table.....

Tim Hortons is paying them above the table I think. Also, the new immigrants don't go to construction where we have a shortage, but they'd rather be a Tim Horton's worker than work labor, and get paid more, while fulfilling a job role that Canada actually needs. The government needs to stop approving Tim Hortons workers for PR, and send them back after while. Too many people caused too much inflation, which is what caused this whole mess in the first place!

Elfwood wrote: ↑You see the truth, I agree that it is a ponzi scheme - that's the game of fiat monetary system. We get paid in fiat, so what are we supposed to do? The only way to get ahead is to participate in it and watch someone else labour even more to make our retirement comfortable.

I'm not even against fiat per se.

The ability to loan money that doesn't exist to spur economic activity and investment is an amazing tool. The problem is, like the dealer who get's high on his own supply, people can't keep their hands out of the cookie jar. It starts off innocently enough, trying to spur the economy, but it doesn't go as well as you hoped, and a few more dollars than you intended might have been released. Then before you know it, France is trying to give you back a bunch of your dollars for gold, and you don't want to accept your own dollars, because you both know that the gold is far more valuable than the promise the dollars represent. It's just far to temping, to maintain power, to fudge the numbers, to stay in power just a little longer, to cut your drugs or silver dollars with a bit more, and then a bit more after that. It worked once, why not again?

The unconstrained ability for someone to redeem their dollars into gold which, while still allowing for more dollars than gold to be out there, at least provide *some* check stop like happened with France in 65. They should have been allowed to redeem, and the US should have taken it as a message to get it's house in order. But modern finance - change the rules when they no longer suit you.

User981123 wrote: ↑Tim Hortons is paying them above the table I think. Also, the new immigrants don't go to construction where we have a shortage, but they'd rather be a Tim Horton's worker than work labor, and get paid more, while fulfilling a job role that Canada actually needs. The government needs to stop approving Tim Hortons workers for PR, and send them back after while. Too many people caused too much inflation, which is what caused this whole mess in the first place!

Yes but there's also a large contingent being hired under the table. Especially students. Maybe not just at Tim Horton's but at other places. Especially independently owned franchises. This is how they avoid paying "minimum wage." Students have limits to what or how much they can work - so the $$$ being undocumented helps their cause.

Certain educated immigrants sometimes have no choice but to get jobs at Tim Horton's, Uber or whatever as their credentials are not recognized. This is also another problem/debate that we dont need to get into here.

JayLove06 wrote: ↑Ponzi is the thr new “it” word. Get hip.

Well yes and no. Prices can go up, but there needs to be a reason. Why would it be 3x more valuable? Just because? That's not an economic reason. What if Mr 3x buyer sells it for 4x, and people start to think they'll sell it for 5 and 6x? Bubbles are just self perpetuating ponzis where instead of being promised unrealistic returns, ppl just look to history and come to that conclusion on their own, vastly over pay for something with only the hope of selling to someone else for more to make money.

I'd say housing (today, not when markets were largely balanced and moving in tandem with rents, incomes, and growth) is as much of a ponzi as many MLMs are selling essential oil or whatever. Buying in does indeed provide some value, however, it's less than the economic value it takes out (hence our productivity crisis - just because you're winning doesn't mean everyone is playing smart - look at a lottery). Becoming a rep to have house parties and sell oils to your friends who are only doing it to be polite is a horribly inefficient business model. The real money in those things is to recruit people into your triangle network. When more of the profit comes from recruiting new entrants, then actually moving product operationally, it's a Ponzi.

Housing as an investment class, at today's prices and rents, costs you money. You buy oils for $20, and sell them for $10. However, if you recruit someone new to sign up under you for $1000, that will offset all of your losses and then some. That's many recent investors. Hell many said to leave units empty to avoid nightmare tenants. $2000 a month when you're making $8000 in appreciation is a small price to pay when you unload at a profit.

Can anyone.... anyone explain to me why are downtown condos such a stinker?

You can now get more money per square foot in every single neighborhood.... including Hamilton as long as the building is relatively new (less than 20 years).

Even those buildings have much higher property taxes and condo fees.

I know people in Canada LOVE to pay more for less, but this is ridiculous.

BiegeToyota wrote: ↑Can anyone.... anyone explain to me why are downtown condos such a stinker?

You can now get more money per square foot in every single neighborhood.... including Hamilton as long as the building is relatively new (less than 20 years).

Even those buildings have much higher property taxes and condo fees.

I know people in Canada LOVE to pay more for less, but this is ridiculous.

I think the most accurate reason I've heard here is they are totally separate markets. The supply and demand is totally different in suburbs. A lot less people who wanted to flip or rent out as investments as the rents were kind of crap in the suburbs 5 years ago. Meanwhile the suburban bank of dad downpayment gen Z folks don't even know what downtown is. I know kids in Markham who don't go south of Steeles more than a couple of times a year and for sure won't drive south of Eglington. I guess as you know it's totally normal in the third world to have random towers everywhere so maybe there is that trend as well.

The whole outlook looks bleak and there are so many more completions coming it's hard to be optimistic but if anything is under-priced compared to comparator cities its downtown.

fogetmylogin wrote: ↑I guess as you know it's totally normal in the third world to have random towers everywhere so maybe there is that trend as well.

Except in the third world the public transit is much better connected, so this makes even less sense. I thought, maybe wrongly that most jobs are in Downtown Toronto.

StuS56958 wrote: ↑Why don't they convert most of the office towers into condos? Not many travel for work anymore and instead of building from scratch, just do conversions and pass on the lower construction costs to buyers.

They don't? Is that why Toronto traffic is voted worst in the world?

BiegeToyota wrote: ↑Can anyone.... anyone explain to me why are downtown condos such a stinker?

You can now get more money per square foot in every single neighborhood.... including Hamilton as long as the building is relatively new (less than 20 years).

Even those buildings have much higher property taxes and condo fees.

I know people in Canada LOVE to pay more for less, but this is ridiculous.

I feel like there are many reasons:

1. Huge amount of supply
2. The demographics have changed. Rich Chinese immigrants vs poor Indian immigrants. Rich ones looking at houses.
3. Downtown Toronto is a cesspool. Traffic, violence, tents, construction everywhere, not nearly as cool as it used to be.
4. Remote work - If you don't have to work downtown 5 days out of the week, you can live outside of the core

StuS56958 wrote: ↑Why don't they convert most of the office towers into condos? Not many travel for work anymore and instead of building from scratch, just do conversions and pass on the lower construction costs to buyers.

Most office tower footprints and HVAC/water systems don't easily convert to desirable residential plans, at the very least they need subsidies from government like what has happened in Calgary.

BiegeToyota wrote: ↑Can anyone.... anyone explain to me why are downtown condos such a stinker?

You can now get more money per square foot in every single neighborhood.... including Hamilton as long as the building is relatively new (less than 20 years).

Even those buildings have much higher property taxes and condo fees.

I know people in Canada LOVE to pay more for less, but this is ridiculous.

Large portion of condos in the core were investor owned, between AirBnb restrictions, LTB backlog, and most importantly high rates and "investors" that were on variable rates (most) we've had a massive sell off of units for the past 18+ months with no end in sight. Mix that in with regular units being up for sale for move up buyers and we have what we have now. Sellers have proven to have decent staying power as prices have been very slow to adjust on the way down, but that's what we are seeing unfold right now.

We are a 20% price drop away from reaching some sort of reasonable cashflow metrics or 1.5%-2% rate drop away form that. This is assuming rents stay the same, which also seem to be getting pushed down right now.

Let's also not forget there are buyers for these condos on the sidelines, what we don't have is the FOMO of covid where people were tripping over themselves for units. People still want to buy condos for their kids, for the future, to become mom & pop investors, it's likely not going to happen until the above mentioned price/rate cuts happen.